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The withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has raised concerns about regional stability. The move, which became official on January 29, has left experts worried about the growing threat of extremism and insurgency in the Sahel region, already joining with violent extremism.
Former diplomats warn that the absence of these countries could further weaken security cooperation in the region and complicate efforts to address ongoing security challenges.
Retired Nigerian diplomat Ogbole Amedu-Ode emphasized that the timing of the departure was critical, as it occurred under Nigeria’s leadership of ECOWAS. He warned that Nigeria’s diminishing influence in the region could lead to further instability, particularly if the country reduces its role in multinational security efforts. Amedu-Ode called for diplomatic engagement to ensure that Nigeria remains central to managing the region’s security dynamics.
The Director-General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Professor Eghosa Osaghae, described the pullout as a temporary setback in the regional body’s integration goals. However, Osaghae noted that Nigeria and Niger have long-standing ties, and dialogue could eventually bridge the gap. He suggested that the situation while challenging, may offer opportunities for future cooperation despite the tensions.
Foreign affairs expert Charles Onunaiju stressed the severity of the withdrawal, describing it as a major setback for regional security, particularly in the Sahel, which is a hotspot for terrorism. He warned against isolating these nations, urging ECOWAS to explore alternative frameworks, such as an “ECOWAS plus Sahel States” model, to maintain security and diplomatic ties. Onunaiju also cautioned that failure to engage these countries could lead to worsened migration pressures and security threats for neighboring nations, including Nigeria.
While many have criticized the military juntas that now control the three countries, some diplomats argue that engaging with them remains essential. Retired diplomat Rasheed Akinkuolie recommended sustained pressure on the juntas through ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) to restore democratic processes. He highlighted that, despite their illegitimacy, dialogue is necessary to reduce human suffering and avoid escalating the political and security crisis in the Sahel.
